EIA Revised 2020 Retail Gasoline Up 4cts on Demand Recovery
OAKHRUST, N.J. (DTN) --- The Energy Information Administration revised
higher for a third month its forecasted retail gasoline price outlook, with
crude prices increasing as employees return to work following COVID-19 related
closures, lifting employment estimates.
The agency estimates the retail price of gasoline in the U.S. will average
$2.06 gallon during the third quarter. The price is seen rising from an average
of $2.08 gallon in June to $2.10 gallon in July before falling to $2.00 gallon
For all of 2020, EIA expects U.S. regular gasoline retail prices to average
$2.11 gallon, up 4cts from the prior month estimate while the 2021 price is
forecast a nickel higher at $2.23 gallon.
Brent crude oil is estimated at $40.50 bbl this year versus $38.02 bbl in
last month's STEO while West Texas Intermediate is forecast $2.41 bbl high at
U.S. motor gasoline consumption in forecast at an average of 8.3 million bpd
in 2020, down 1.0 million bpd or 10.3% from 2019 consumption levels. The annual
declines are largely the result of travel disruptions and COVID-19 mitigation
efforts that occurred predominantly in the first half of 2020. In the second
half of 2020, gasoline consumption is supported by a forecast increase in
employment and is expected to rise from an average of 7.8 million bpd in the
first half to of the year to 8.8 million bpd in the second half of the year.
EIA assumes employment levels continue to grow in 2021, driving gasoline
consumption up 0.8 million bpd from 2020 levels to average 9.1 million bpd in
The agency projects consumption of global liquid fuels at 92.9 million bpd
in 2020, down 8.1 million bpd from 2019. EIA forecasts that both
oil-consumption weighted GDP and global liquid fuels consumption will begin
rising in the third quarter 2020 and will continue increasing through 2020.
However, EIA expects global liquids consumption in the second half of 2020 to
remain lower, down by 5.8 million bpd from the same period in 2019, which would
still be an increase of 6.2 million bod from the first half of the year. The
increase in oil consumption results from a normalization of economic activity
following COVID-19-related disruptions. EIA expects a steady increase in
consumption of gasoline and diesel in the second half of 2020.
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