EIA Revised 2020 Retail Gasoline Up 4cts on Demand Recovery


   
    

   OAKHRUST, N.J. (DTN) --- The Energy Information Administration revised 
higher for a third month its forecasted retail gasoline price outlook, with 
crude prices increasing as employees return to work following COVID-19 related 
closures, lifting employment estimates.

   The agency estimates the retail price of gasoline in the U.S. will average 
$2.06 gallon during the third quarter. The price is seen rising from an average 
of $2.08 gallon in June to $2.10 gallon in July before falling to $2.00 gallon 
in September.

   For all of 2020, EIA expects U.S. regular gasoline retail prices to average 
$2.11 gallon, up 4cts from the prior month estimate while the 2021 price is 
forecast a nickel higher at $2.23 gallon.

   Brent crude oil is estimated at $40.50 bbl this year versus $38.02 bbl in 
last month's STEO while West Texas Intermediate is forecast $2.41 bbl high at 
$37.55 bbl.

   U.S. motor gasoline consumption in forecast at an average of 8.3 million bpd 
in 2020, down 1.0 million bpd or 10.3% from 2019 consumption levels. The annual 
declines are largely the result of travel disruptions and COVID-19 mitigation 
efforts that occurred predominantly in the first half of 2020. In the second 
half of 2020, gasoline consumption is supported by a forecast increase in 
employment and is expected to rise from an average of 7.8 million bpd in the 
first half to of the year to 8.8 million bpd in the second half of the year. 
EIA assumes employment levels continue to grow in 2021, driving gasoline 
consumption up 0.8 million bpd from 2020 levels to average 9.1 million bpd in 
2021.

   The agency projects consumption of global liquid fuels at 92.9 million bpd 
in 2020, down 8.1 million bpd from 2019. EIA forecasts that both 
oil-consumption weighted GDP and global liquid fuels consumption will begin 
rising in the third quarter 2020 and will continue increasing through 2020. 
However, EIA expects global liquids consumption in the second half of 2020 to 
remain lower, down by 5.8 million bpd from the same period in 2019, which would 
still be an increase of 6.2 million bod from the first half of the year. The 
increase in oil consumption results from a normalization of economic activity 
following COVID-19-related disruptions. EIA expects a steady increase in 
consumption of gasoline and diesel in the second half of 2020.




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