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EIA Revised 2020 Retail Gasoline Up 4cts on Demand Recover
7/07 11:46 AM
EIA Revised 2020 Retail Gasoline Up 4cts on Demand Recovery OAKHRUST, N.J. (DTN) --- The Energy Information Administration revised higher for a third month its forecasted retail gasoline price outlook, with crude prices increasing as employees return to work following COVID-19 related closures, lifting employment estimates. The agency estimates the retail price of gasoline in the U.S. will average $2.06 gallon during the third quarter. The price is seen rising from an average of $2.08 gallon in June to $2.10 gallon in July before falling to $2.00 gallon in September. For all of 2020, EIA expects U.S. regular gasoline retail prices to average $2.11 gallon, up 4cts from the prior month estimate while the 2021 price is forecast a nickel higher at $2.23 gallon. Brent crude oil is estimated at $40.50 bbl this year versus $38.02 bbl in last month's STEO while West Texas Intermediate is forecast $2.41 bbl high at $37.55 bbl. U.S. motor gasoline consumption in forecast at an average of 8.3 million bpd in 2020, down 1.0 million bpd or 10.3% from 2019 consumption levels. The annual declines are largely the result of travel disruptions and COVID-19 mitigation efforts that occurred predominantly in the first half of 2020. In the second half of 2020, gasoline consumption is supported by a forecast increase in employment and is expected to rise from an average of 7.8 million bpd in the first half to of the year to 8.8 million bpd in the second half of the year. EIA assumes employment levels continue to grow in 2021, driving gasoline consumption up 0.8 million bpd from 2020 levels to average 9.1 million bpd in 2021. The agency projects consumption of global liquid fuels at 92.9 million bpd in 2020, down 8.1 million bpd from 2019. EIA forecasts that both oil-consumption weighted GDP and global liquid fuels consumption will begin rising in the third quarter 2020 and will continue increasing through 2020. However, EIA expects global liquids consumption in the second half of 2020 to remain lower, down by 5.8 million bpd from the same period in 2019, which would still be an increase of 6.2 million bod from the first half of the year. The increase in oil consumption results from a normalization of economic activity following COVID-19-related disruptions. EIA expects a steady increase in consumption of gasoline and diesel in the second half of 2020. (c) Copyright 2020 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.