EIA Raises Henry Hub Spot Price Nearly 25% from Jan. STEO


   
Kristina Davis
DTN Refined Fuels Market Reporter

   MIAMI, FL (DTN) -- The Energy Information Administration raised its U.S. 
natural gas price outlook after extreme cold weather in January sharply 
tightened market conditions, pushing heating demand higher and triggering 
record storage withdrawals, the agency's latest Short Term Energy Outlook 
released Tuesday (2/10) showed.  
The Henry Hub spot price, which averaged $3.53/MMBtu in 2025, is now forecast 
to average $4.31/MMBtu in 2026, up nearly 25% from the January STEO forecast of 
$3.46/MMBtu. The upward revision reflects widespread colder than normal weather 
and production disruptions tied to Winter Storm Fern, which drove prices 
sharply higher in January, according to the report.  
Henry Hub prices averaged $7.72/MMBtu in January, up 81% from December, as 
freeze offs temporarily reduced output and heating demand surged across much of 
the United States. The market tightened further during the week ending January 
30, when utilities withdrew a record 360 Bcf from storage, the EIA said.  
U.S. natural gas inventories are now expected to exit the withdrawal season at 
the end of March about 1% above the five-year average, a sharp revision from 
last month's forecast that projected stocks would end winter 10% above average. 
The EIA estimates nearly 2,080 Bcf will be withdrawn from storage this winter, 
about 7% more than the five year average draw.  
"Colder-than-normal temperatures at the start of 2026 increased residential and 
commercial consumption and led to larger-than-average withdrawals," the EIA 
said, noting that January heating degree days were 12% higher than projected in 
the January STEO.  
Looking ahead, the agency expects elevated prices to encourage increased 
drilling activity and production later in the year. U.S. dry natural gas output 
is forecast to average about 110 Bcfd in 2026, up more than 1 Bcfd from last 
month's outlook, with additional growth expected in 2027 as new Permian 
pipeline capacity comes online and gas-to-oil ratios strengthen.  
U.S. marketed natural gas production is projected to average between 117 Bcfd 
and 118 Bcfd over 2025-27, while LNG exports continue to climb. The EIA expects 
U.S. LNG exports to rise from about 15 Bcfd in 2025 to 16 Bcfd in 2026 and 18 
Bcfd by 2027, supported by new liquefaction capacity additions.




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