EIA: U.S. Natural Gas Prices to Rise in Winter Driven by Exports


   
Kristina Davis
DTN Refined Fuels Market Reporter

   MIAMI, FL (DTN)-- U.S. natural gas markets are tightening as winter 
approaches, with the Energy Information Administration projecting higher Henry 
Hub prices and continued growth in liquefied natural gas exports through 2026. 
The agency's November Short Term Energy Outlook forecasts prices rising amid 
steady demand and limited production growth.

   The agency projects Henry Hub prices will average $4.00/MMBtu in 2026, up 
16% from 2025, due largely to expanding LNG export capacity coupled with flat 
production growth.

   The EIA expects the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub spot price to average $4.00 per 
million British thermal units over the 2025-26 winter heating season, peaking 
at $4.25/MMBtu in January. October's average price climbed to about 
$3.20/MMBtu, marking a 45% increase from the same month last year, even as 
inventories held roughly steady and sat 4% above the five-year average.
Natural gas prices typically follow seasonal demand patterns, with colder 
weather driving higher consumption for space heating. EIA analysts, however, 
say another major factor will drive prices higher next year exports. 
U.S. marketed natural gas production is forecast to hover near 118.7 billion 
cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2026, reflecting only modest year-over-year 
growth. Consumption trends, meanwhile, are shifting with weather patterns. EIA 
expects lower residential and commercial demand this winter down about 5% from 
last winter as forecasts call for warmer temperatures and 3% fewer heating 
degree days than last year.
Despite easing domestic consumption, U.S. producers are finding strong demand 
abroad. Industrial and electric power sectors are projected to sustain baseline 
consumption through 2026, helping stabilize the domestic market.
Liquefied natural gas exports remain the standout story in the EIA's forecast.

   The U.S. is expected to export 14.9 Bcf/d of LNG in 2025, a 25% jump from 
last year, driven by new capacity coming online ahead of schedule. The 
Plaquemines LNG facility in Louisiana, which recently brought its final block 
into service earlier than expected, boosted the agency's 4Q25 LNG forecast by 
3% compared with October's outlook.
By 2026, total LNG exports are projected to increase another 10%, reaching 16.3 
Bcf/d as Golden Pass LNG Trains 1-2 and Corpus Christi Stage 3 Blocks begin 
operations. These additions will contribute 2.1 Bcf/d of new export capacity by 
year's end.
With domestic production leveling off and LNG exports expanding, the U.S. 
natural gas market is entering a period of tighter supply and firmer prices. 
While residential consumers may see only modest changes due to utility 
regulations; with the average home heating price expected to rise just 2% to 
$13.80 per thousand cubic feet this winter, industrial users and global buyers 
could feel the brunt of rising Henry Hub prices through 2026




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